Click here to close now.

Welcome!

Microservices Expo Authors: John Wetherill, Liz McMillan, Elizabeth White, Pat Romanski, Michael Kanasoot

Related Topics: CloudExpo® Blog

CloudExpo® Blog: Article

i-Technology Predictions for 2009

2009 Will Be The Year of Cloud Computing; Cassatt CEO warns: "But remember, it's only Cloud 1.0. There's still work to do."

Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up

Every year SYS-CON polls selected members of the the Internet technologies (i-Technology) community and asks them to share their thoughts on what's around the corner in the world of i-Technology and Web-based enterprise. The main consensual themes this year were very clear. Cassatt Corporation's visionary CEO Bill Coleman, for example - famous in a former life for being the 'B' in BEA Systems - is adamant that 2009 is going to be The Year of Cloud. Belt-tightening by major IT-spenders not surprisingly was another recurring theme.

As early as 2004 Cassatt was outlining a roadmap to deliver on the promise of automating IT operations for on-demand computing and currently its angle, Cloud Computing-wise, is to focus not on public or external clouds but on 'Internal Clouds' so it's hardly surprising that The Cloud features in Coleman's set of predictions.

WILLIAM T. COLEMAN III, Chairman & CEO, Cassatt Corporation

Prediction #1: In 2009, it's all about "the cloud." Save money, move fast, and…ooops. Expect some problems. But remember, it's only Cloud 1.0. There's still work to do. Oh, and virtualization alone is not enough to make it all work.

Prediction #2: Google is the biggest and the best on the Net, but there is one problem: the whole world isn't just an ad. In 2009, Google meets the real world. Sorry, Google, but it's tough to have to compete when you are only the Yellow Pages.

Prediction #3: Social Networking. The world will discover in 2009 that "Wow, it really is a platform." It's my life, but on the network with my "friends." It really is who I am. Now we have to figure out if it can be monetized. Which, of course, means we'll see overinvestment in unproven business models in 2009, leading to another "bust" down the line.

Prediction #4: In 2009, identity becomes the fulcrum of security issues. It's an issue we finally realize that we have to solve, or we can expect a serious cyber-meltdown.


VIK CHAUDHARY, Vice President of Product Management and Corporate Development, Keynote Systems

Prediction: In 2009 millions of new programmers will enter the software industry.

Here's the basis for Chaudhary's prediction.

"In the 1980s, the software industry moved from mainframe computing to PC computing. Companies like Microsoft sprang up, creating software development tools that spawned a whole generation of programmers. Programmers didn't need to learn arcane programming languages like Cobol, or even have to master languages like C or C++ - they could program in 4GL languages like Visual Basic and SQLWindows. At this point, legions of programmers entered the workforce, as the bar to build applications was lowered.

In the 1990s, the same thing happened with programming languages like HTML and JavaScript, making it far easier for someone to build web sites and applications. In the 2000s, with cloud computing making it easy for programmers to build applications and allowing someone else deploy and manage them, there will be a new generation of programmers who focus on the application and less on the infrastructure. And it just gets easier and easier to be a programmer!"

The next set of speculations on the future come from industry veteran Jnan Dash.

JNAN DASH, Chief Strategy Officer, Curl

"Given the economic crisis and recession, there is belt-tightening by major IT-spenders," Dash says. "So what technologies will win? Anything that helps in cost savings. When the top line (a.k.a. revenue) stops growing, companies will attack the bottom line (a.k.a. cost)."

Here is his prediction for 2009:

"The much anticipated switch to web platform from client-server will start to take off in 2009. Call it enterprise RIA if you like. The question is not whether one should use Curl, or Flex or Silverlight. That's the wrong end of the argument - adopting technology for the sake of technology. The key question is - how do you justify such application modernization?

With over 400 enterprise class customers we have a lot of actual examples of Curl implementations providing real business savings. Unfortunately the details of these examples are mostly company confidential. Recently we have been detailing possible business savings based real customer cases but using example data. We find this helps in getting the discussion going on what the opportunity for savings could be. Here are three examples:

  • Better Performance -The current application takes 90 seconds to perform a complex data visualization. If 1,000 employees perform this operation 50 times per day this is 1250 hours of wait time per day. If the visualization time is reduced to 1 second this saves 300,000 hours per year and at $20/hour that is more than $6M/year!
  • Better Visualization - The current process to find error patterns in operational data takes 60 minutes and the department of 100 employees whose job it is to identify and fix these errors typically finds 600 errors a day. If good data visualization can reduce the time to find one error pattern to 10 minutes this would save 500 hours per day or 130,000 hours per year. At $20 per hour this is $2.6M in savings per year!
  • Support Cost - The current client-server application must be updated 6 times a year to 10,000 users. Each update costs $5 in distribution and material costs and 15 minutes of end user time. A Web application would eliminate this cost and save approximately $600,000 a year."


CHRIS FLECK, VP of Solutions Development and Community Evangelism, Citrix Systems

Prediction #1: The iPhone goes Enterprise - The iPhone will gain rapid adoption in the Enterprise driven by user demands including executives, road warriors, and knowledge workers asking for access to any app ( including windows apps ) from anywhere. IT will increasingly support the effort based on new improved security capabilities and productivity gains ( including for themselves ).

Prediction #2: Corporate issued laptop model will be challenged - Companies looking to provide access to day extenders without the full expense and maintenance of a company laptop will increasingly adopt application delivery infrastructure like XenApp that can provide safe IT hosted application access from un-trusted personal PC’s. In addition, companies will begin to pilot the BYOC ( Bring Your Own Computer ) model for knowledge workers seeking personal choice while reducing IT expense and support costs.

Prediction #3: Virtual Desktops grow beyond a niche - Improvements in user experience capabilities of VDI solutions combined with the reduced support cost model will drive increased adoption of VDI beyond the initial niche deployments.

Prediction #4: IaaS Cloud Providers are no longer just for web startups - The recent Windows offering by Amazon will validate the IaaS ( Infrastructure as a Service ) model as a viable platform for companies small and large looking to add test and targeted production capacity without capital and facility costs.

Prediction #5: Netbooks drive Servers, Clouds and Linux clients - The rapid adoption of Netbooks based on low cost and light weight convenience will increase the desire to run server hosted apps ( Web and Windows ). A significant number of the new mini laptops will be used for occasional use vs a primary PC which makes maintaining local apps and synchronizing data problematic. This in turn will help break the traditional model of running Windows apps installed on PCs and laptops.


Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up


SCOTT LOWE, Blogger and Senior Engineer with ePlus

Prediction #1 - On virtualization: In 2009 we will see virtualization market leader VMware finally take the wraps off some very technologically advanced functionality, but growth will be much harder to come by than in previous years. Microsoft will gain market share at VMware's expense as the hypervisor increasingly becomes commoditized and moves closer and closer to being just a part of the server's firmware. I predict Citrix will continue to remain in 3rd place out of the three major virtualization vendors; their only bright spot will be VDI.

Prediction #2 - On cloud computing: Consumers will increasingly adopt cloud computing services, but enterprises will remain wary of moving applications into the cloud until some open standards around interoperability get finalized and adopted by the major vendors. Service providers will be forced to embrace multiple cloud computing platforms, like VMware vCloud and Citrix Cloud Center, in order to compete effectively, but the lack of management and interoperability standards will make it difficult, if not impossible, to fluidly move between the different platforms. Major cloud computing outages and/or security breaches will further spook the enterprise except in niche areas, such as those currently being served by SaaS vendors.

Prediction #3 - On enterprise IT: Organizations will adopt a private cloud architecture for internal IT operations, but will be much more wary about moving applications onto external clouds. There are too many questions around security, privacy, control, compatibility, and vendor lock-in. Virtualization will be the key building block of private enterprise cloud architectures, and "cloud storage" will start to see greater attention and coverage.

Prediction #4 - On server hardware: Both Intel and AMD will continue to push more and more virtualization support features into the hardware. One or both of them may even go so far as to introduce their own hypervisor, or perhaps license a small hypervisor to be embedded deeply in their chipsets. Eight core CPUs will be introduced. PCI Express-based I/O virtualization via MR-IOV will begin to see greater adoption.


Industry Leaders Discuss the Future of Cloud Computing - Click Here To Enjoy SYS-CON's Cloud-Specific Predictions Round-up

 

More Stories By Jeremy Geelan

Jeremy Geelan is Chairman & CEO of the 21st Century Internet Group, Inc. and an Executive Academy Member of the International Academy of Digital Arts & Sciences. Formerly he was President & COO at Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences across six continents. You can follow him on twitter: @jg21.

Comments (0)

Share your thoughts on this story.

Add your comment
You must be signed in to add a comment. Sign-in | Register

In accordance with our Comment Policy, we encourage comments that are on topic, relevant and to-the-point. We will remove comments that include profanity, personal attacks, racial slurs, threats of violence, or other inappropriate material that violates our Terms and Conditions, and will block users who make repeated violations. We ask all readers to expect diversity of opinion and to treat one another with dignity and respect.


@MicroservicesExpo Stories
Over the years, a variety of methodologies have emerged in order to overcome the challenges related to project constraints. The successful use of each methodology seems highly context-dependent. However, communication seems to be the common denominator of the many challenges that project management methodologies intend to resolve. In this respect, Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can be viewed as powerful tools for managing projects. Few research papers have focused on the way...
As the world moves from DevOps to NoOps, application deployment to the cloud ought to become a lot simpler. However, applications have been architected with a much tighter coupling than it needs to be which makes deployment in different environments and migration between them harder. The microservices architecture, which is the basis of many new age distributed systems such as OpenStack, Netflix and so on is at the heart of CloudFoundry – a complete developer-oriented Platform as a Service (PaaS...
In the first four parts of this series I presented an introduction to microservices along with a handful of emerging microservices patterns, and a discussion of some of the downsides and challenges to using microservices. The most recent installment of this series looked at ten ways that PaaS facilitates microservices development and adoption. In this post I’ll cover some words of wisdom, advice intended for individuals, teams, and organizations considering a move to microservices. I've gleaned...
Many people recognize DevOps as an enormous benefit – faster application deployment, automated toolchains, support of more granular updates, better cooperation across groups. However, less appreciated is the journey enterprise IT groups need to make to achieve this outcome. The plain fact is that established IT processes reflect a very different set of goals: stability, infrequent change, hands-on administration, and alignment with ITIL. So how does an enterprise IT organization implement change...
How can you compare one technology or tool to its competitors? Usually, there is no objective comparison available. So how do you know which is better? Eclipse or IntelliJ IDEA? Java EE or Spring? C# or Java? All you can usually find is a holy war and biased comparisons on vendor sites. But luckily, sometimes, you can find a fair comparison. How does this come to be? By having it co-authored by the stakeholders. The binary repository comparison matrix is one of those rare resources. It is edite...
Containers Expo Blog covers the world of containers, as this lightweight alternative to virtual machines enables developers to work with identical dev environments and stacks. Containers Expo Blog offers top articles, news stories, and blog posts from the world's well-known experts and guarantees better exposure for its authors than any other publication. Bookmark Containers Expo Blog ▸ Here Follow new article posts on Twitter at @ContainersExpo
The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long development cycles that produce software that is obsolete at launch. DevOps may be disruptive, but it is essential. The DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo – to be held June 3-5, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City – will expand the DevOps community, enable a wide...
I’ve been thinking a bit about microservices (μServices) recently. My immediate reaction is to think: “Isn’t this just yet another new term for the same stuff, Web Services->SOA->APIs->Microservices?” Followed shortly by the thought, “well yes it is, but there are some important differences/distinguishing factors.” Microservices is an evolutionary paradigm born out of the need for simplicity (i.e., get away from the ESB) and alignment with agile (think DevOps) and scalable (think Containerizati...
In her General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Anne Plese, Senior Consultant, Cloud Product Marketing, at Verizon Enterprise, focused on finding the right mix of renting vs. buying Oracle capacity to scale to meet business demands, and offer validated Oracle database TCO models for Oracle development and testing environments. Anne Plese is a marketing and technology enthusiast/realist with over 19+ years in high tech. At Verizon Enterprise, she focuses on driving growth for the Verizon Cloud platfo...
I read an insightful article this morning from Bernard Golden on DZone discussing the DevOps conundrum facing many enterprises today – is it better to build your own DevOps tools or go commercial? For Golden, the question arose from his observations at a number of DevOps Days events he has attended, where typically the audience is composed of startup professionals: “I have to say, though, that a typical feature of most presentations is a recitation of the various open source products and compo...
Cloud Expo, Inc. has announced today that Andi Mann returns to DevOps Summit 2015 as Conference Chair. The 4th International DevOps Summit will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. "DevOps is set to be one of the most profound disruptions to hit IT in decades," said Andi Mann. "It is a natural extension of cloud computing, and I have seen both firsthand and in independent research the fantastic results DevOps delivers. So I am excited to help the great team at ...
Software is eating the world. Companies that were not previously in the technology space now find themselves competing with Google and Amazon on speed of innovation. As the innovation cycle accelerates, companies must embrace rapid and constant change to both applications and their infrastructure, and find a way to deliver speed and agility of development without sacrificing reliability or efficiency of operations. In her Day 2 Keynote DevOps Summit, Victoria Livschitz, CEO of Qubell, discussed...
SYS-CON Events announced today that MetraTech, now part of Ericsson, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society- a world leader in communications infrastructure, software and services. Some 40% of the world’s mobile traffic runs through networks Ericsson has supplied, serving more than 2.5 billion subscribers.
The 5th International DevOps Summit, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo – being held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the...
How does one bridge the gap between traditional enterprise storage infrastructures and the private, hybrid, and public cloud? In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Dan Pollack, Chief Architect of Storage Operations at AOL Inc., examed the workload differences and required changes to reuse existing knowledge and components when building and using a cloud infrastructure. He also looked into the operational considerations, tool requirements, and behavioral changes required for private cloud storage s...
The speed of product development has increased massively in the past 10 years. At the same time our formal secure development and SDL methodologies have fallen behind. This forces product developers to choose between rapid release times and security. In his session at DevOps Summit, Michael Murray, Director of Cyber Security Consulting and Assessment at GE Healthcare, examined the problems and presented some solutions for moving security into the DevOps lifecycle to ensure that we get fast AND ...
Virtualization is everywhere. Enormous and highly profitable companies have been built on nothing but virtualization. And nowhere has virtualization made more of an impact than in Cloud Computing, the rampant and unprecedented adoption of which has been the direct result of the wide availability of virtualization software and techniques that enabled it. But does the cloud actually require virtualization?
Working with Big Data is challenging, especially when decision makers depend on market insights and intelligence from your data but don't have quick access to it or find it unusable. In their session at 6th Big Data Expo, Ian Khan, Global Strategic Positioning & Brand Manager at Solgenia; Zel Bianco, President, CEO and Co-Founder of Interactive Edge of Solgenia; and Ermanno Bonifazi, CEO & Founder at Solgenia, discussed how a revolutionary cloud-based BI along with mobile analytics is already c...
Hardware will never be more valuable than on the day it hits your loading dock. Each day new servers are not deployed to production the business is losing money. While Moore's Law is typically cited to explain the exponential density growth of chips, a critical consequence of this is rapid depreciation of servers. The hardware for clustered systems (e.g., Hadoop, OpenStack) tends to be significant capital expenses. In his session at Big Data Expo, Mason Katz, CTO and co-founder of StackIQ, disc...
Enterprises are fast realizing the importance of integrating SaaS/Cloud applications, API and on-premises data and processes, to unleash hidden value. This webinar explores how managers can use a Microservice-centric approach to aggressively tackle the unexpected new integration challenges posed by proliferation of cloud, mobile, social and big data projects. Industry analyst and SOA expert Jason Bloomberg will strip away the hype from microservices, and clearly identify their advantages and d...