| By Jeremy Geelan | Article Rating: |
|
| December 13, 2006 12:00 PM EST | Reads: |
27,270 |
As I write this, the stock price of Google, Inc. just exceeded $500 for the first time in the company's still-brief (two-year) history as a public company. That gives the search colossus a market cap of $150 billion, many times in excess of its physical assets - currently valued at $10.2 billion.
Whether the latest surge in value is being driven by the perception that Microsoft may be losing its golden touch, or whether it is Google's sheer Web 2.0-style inventiveness that is causing investors to pile into its stock, matters not. What matters is that the company that snapped up video-sharing site YouTube for $1.65 billion now doesn't seem quite so profligate. Everything is relative.
But why, many outside the industry are wondering, is the company started eight years ago in a Silicon Valley garage by Stanford University graduate students Larry Page and Sergey Brin already worth $150 billion, when the one started 24 years ago by Andy Bechtolsheim, Bill Joy, Vinod Khosla, and Scott McNealy - a.k.a. Stanford University Network, now Sun Micrososystems - is currently worth just $19.5 billion?
The answer, ironically, may lie in Andy Bechtolsheim. Because not only is he famous for being Sun's "employee No. 1," he is also equally famous for being the author of a $100,000 check that represented nearly one-tenth of Google's total capital when it was founded, back in 1998 when it was still running off the google.stanford.edu domain - in other words, the Stanford University website.
Although Bechtolsheim rejoined Sun in February 2004 when it acquired the privately-held company he co-founded, Kealia, based in Palo Alto, California, Sun's first "disruptive innovator" is uniquely independent in spirit. What he saw in Google back then, long before it became The Big G, while very different from what we see today, must have captivated him: their front end of public search and advertising algorithms, he must have realized, had unusual and disruptive potential.
Just five years later, another Sun employee, Eric Schmidt, experienced a similar epiphany. In a vision famously summarized later as "The Network Is the Computer," Schmidt wrote: "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." Under such new circumstances, Schmidt figured, profits would flow very differently:
"Not to the companies making the fastest processors or best operating systems, but to the companies with the best networks and the best search and sort algorithms."
Schmidt left Sun and, as we now know, gravitated (via a stint at Novell) toward the Chairmanship of the very company that was by then most clearly demonstrating the accuracy of his 2003 vision.
So the answer to the $150BN vs $19.5BN market cap question above is that Google is still near the beginning of an Internet technology cycle that could last an entire generation, while Sun stands at the end of an i-Technology cycle that is already 24 years old.
But Bechtolsheim was once asked "So is the game over?" and I have never forgotten his reply: "Only if no one changes the game."
While the last few years may have been disappointing for people who thrive on accelerated progress in technology, the world is moving faster again. Lest I be accused of puffing air into Bubble 2.0, though - especially since this is the month when I typically poll so many minds for their i-Technology predictions - it would perhaps be as well if I were just to remind readers of technology visionary George Gilder's sobering words:
"Amid the beckoning fantasies of futurism, the purpose of whatever comes next - like that of today's petapede - will be to serve the ultimate, and still the only general-purpose, petascale computer: the human brain."
Google figured the Web's first killer app. Web search now assists us n times a day in thinking, writing, and doing. And Google now helps us with communicating and social computing too. But if the network is the computer and the ultimate computer is the human brain, then maybe Java can help change the game by making the human brain the network? After all, where Eric Schmidt's Google goes, can Jonathan Schwartz's Sun - with its humongous R&D budget - be so very many steps behind?
Enjoy the technologically diverse predictions showcased in this issue. One thing alone is certain about the future: like it or loathe it, we're all headed there together!
Published December 13, 2006 Reads 27,270
Copyright © 2006 SYS-CON Media, Inc. — All Rights Reserved.
Syndicated stories and blog feeds, all rights reserved by the author.
More Stories By Jeremy Geelan
Jeremy Geelan is President & COO of Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences both in North America and overseas. He is executive producer and presenter of Cloud Expo's "Power Panels" on SYS-CON.TV.
- Big Data in Telecom: The Need for Analytics
- Patterns for Building High Performance Applications
- Microsoft Tries Hadoop on Azure
- Amazon to Fix Some Kindle Fire Problems
- What Motivates Open Standards in the Cloud?
- What to Expect in 2012: Cloud Computing and Open Source Software
- Will PaaS Finally Bring Open Source Love to the Enterprise?
- Ten Hot Trends in Cloud Data for 2012
- Oracle Disaster Recovery Site Hosted by Amazon Cloud
- Cross-Platform Mobile Website Development – a Tool Comparison
- Three Buzzwords That Every CIO Hears but One They Should Listen To
- Write Once Run Anywhere or Cross Platform Mobile Development Tools
- The Future of Cloud Computing: Industry Predictions for 2012
- Make Customer On-Boarding Easy as Paint-by-Numbers for Cloud Services
- Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2011
- Book Excerpt: Introducing HTML5
- Adobe Sends Flex to the Apache Foundation
- Big Data in Telecom: The Need for Analytics
- Book Excerpt: Java Application Profiling Tips and Tricks
- i-Technology in 2012: Five Industry Predictions
- Patterns for Building High Performance Applications
- Microsoft Tries Hadoop on Azure
- The Next Web Architecture
- Cloud Computing: A Comparison of Computing Models
- The i-Technology Right Stuff
- The Top 150 Players in Cloud Computing
- Who Are The All-Time Heroes of i-Technology?
- Where Are RIA Technologies Headed in 2008?
- Get the Message
- ESB Myth Busters: 10 Enterprise Service Bus Myths Debunked
- i-Technology Viewpoint: Is Web 2.0 the Global SOA?
- i-Technology Viewpoint: Thinking Outside the VC Box
- i-Technology Viewpoint: When to Leave Your First IT Job
- SOA Web Services Edge Conference Coverage on SYS-CON.TV
- SYS-CON.TV's "SOA Web Services" and "Enterprise Open Source" Programs To Air in December
- Five Reasons Why Web 2.0 Matters

















