|By Gary Zimmerman||
|January 14, 2013 08:00 AM EST||
Twenty years ago, a software engineer named Neil Papworth kicked off the holidays - and a communications revolution - by sending the world's first text message via phone. The message, appropriately enough, was "Merry Christmas."
It took a few more Christmases before text messaging caught on, but ever since we've been able to send text messages to subscribers on different mobile operator networks, it has been nothing but thumbs up for texting. Thanks to the rise in mobile subscriptions, the usage of texting has skyrocketed in recent years. In 2011, for the first time in history, text messaging surpassed voice as the most popular application for mobile phones.
And then the unexpected happened: the number of text messages sent in the U.S. actually declined between the second and third quarter of 2012, according to published reports. It was a small decline, mind you, on the scale of two percent or so. For a technology where quantum annual leaps in usage have been the norm, however, a two-percent decline has the potential to be huge.
Let's make a few assumptions, including that the report is accurate (and it is worth noting that some don't agree). Let's also assume this isn't a one-time anomaly. What does a slight decline really mean? There are a few popular theories:
Theory #1: We've reached a saturation point for text messaging.
There are always some people who will grow tired of a technology after a few years, whether it's text messaging or social media. (Remember when people were leaving Facebook a few years ago?) Text messaging continues to rise where it counts. Younger demographics, like 12-to-15-year-olds who represent the paying customers of tomorrow, continue to be text junkies.
Theory #2: New apps like Skype are eating into the texting market.
Skype poses more of a threat to traditional voice services - not surprising since that's what it was originally designed to displace. The Skype application has to be loaded on the device and active to have a conversation. Text messaging uses a standards-based protocol, so any device assigned a mobile number can send and receive text messages right out of the box.
Theory #3: Text messaging is getting too expensive.
Pay-per-use plans may have kept more people with their thumbs and cash in their pockets. Operators responded with fixed-price, unlimited-usage plans. In the U.S., you can get unlimited calling and texting for under $40 a month, making it affordable to practically anyone.
The fourth possibility is one I see in my own household. Texting is no longer constrained to communications between mobile networks. Many devices are able to send and receive text messages through an Internet connection. Apple's iMessage or Blackberry Messenger are great examples of this trend.
In fact, text messaging has never really stopped evolving. The idea of measuring the value of text messaging by the quantity of messages sent over the mobile network may ultimately sell the technology short.
Before we plot the future of texting, it's helpful to understand its history. Texting grew out of a technology known as Short Message Service (SMS). SMS originally allowed a person to send data-based communications to a mobile phone over the signaling channel rather than the more bandwidth-precious media channel. In fact, in the beginning, mobile phones could not send SMS messages. Nokia was the first manufacturer with a suite of GSM phones to support SMS messaging. Finally as the 20th century came to a close, you were able to send text messages between mobile networks, ushering in the any-to-any text messaging environment that we enjoy today.
In 2000, the average U.S. mobile phone user sent nearly 35 text messages per month. By 2007, text messages outnumbered phone calls. And in 2011, text eclipsed voice as the top application for mobile devices in the U.S. Despite the rapid rise in popularity, the underlying technology behind texting remained largely unchanged. Texts still relied on SMS and limited communications to the same 160-character confines established (somewhat arbitrarily) more than two decades ago. Innovation hasn't been the driver for the adoption of this communication method. Rather, texting's popularity can be traced to contributing market factors, few of which were imagined 20 years ago.
Smartphones, Social Media and Number Portability
Text messaging on a standard cellphone was hit or miss, which meant you hoped you hit the right key when typing your message. Then came BlackBerries and iPhones - smartphones that combined the elements of a laptop computer (complete with an operating system and independent keyboard) and a mobile phone. Suddenly, millions of people were finding a new use for those opposable thumbs. The convenience of texting combined with the constant presence of smartphones (unlike laptops, smartphones seldom leave our sides) made it a preferred choice over traditional email. Early studies proved that people were more likely to read a text rather than an email.
Social media platforms, notably Twitter, also played to the strengths of text messaging by encouraging short, frequent communications in favor of longer, fewer conversations. In fact, Twitter even found SMS to be a bit longwinded, trimming the maximum length of a tweet to a svelte 140 characters. People rediscovered their pithy side as vowels slowly began disappearing from the language, all the while fueling the legitimacy of texting as a form of creative and personal expression.
A less obvious but no less important factor in the rise of texting was the creation of the Telecommunications Act of 1996. This act allows consumers to keep their phone numbers when choosing a new Communications Service Provider (CSP) - even when switching from a wireline to a wireless provider. By allowing phone customers to move their phone numbers freely between CSPs, Americans had unprecedented freedom of communication. Mobile phones, once viewed as a supplemental service to a primary landline, instead became the primary phone service for many customers who found they could keep their identity and cut their costs by going mobile 24/7. In a world where smartphones have an average lifespan of two years, the ability to upgrade your phone and change your service without changing your phone number can't be undervalued.
Texting: The Next 20 Years
I don't believe texting is going away. Anyone with teenage children knows exactly what I mean. Rather, I think it's changing to become a more ubiquitous form of communication. You see, we live in a world where communications overload is a fact of life. We have RSS feeds at the bottom of our TV screens, we text while we talk, we carry phones with built-in video cameras. In a world where everyone is making noise, the challenge is to rise above the noise. And I think that's where texting fits in the future: as a way to cut through the noise.
Take for example a technology like Common Short Codes (CSCs), which can replace a standard phone number with a four-digit number for the purpose of sending text messages. You've seen these used on television programs that encourage audience voting (e.g., American Idol, Dancing with the Stars), but CSCs are increasingly being purchased by businesses to aid in text-based marketing efforts. Right now, you're probably thinking - Great, more marketing, just what the world needs. In fact, text-based marketing is exactly what the world needs. This form of marketing allows businesses and their customers to have meaningful conversations based on customer-selected criteria. In other words, you're not just another name on an email distribution list. With CSC-based marketing, consumers select the kind of communications they receive, how they receive them and engage businesses on their own terms.
For the time being, text messaging has a distinct advantage over other forms of communication when it comes to consumer marketing. On the one hand, they're less intrusive than voice calls, which are often perceived as cold (in the case of pre-recorded calls) or overly aggressive live calls. And, because the industry has set guidelines for the use of text messaging, issues like spamming have so far proven to be limited.
When I talk to CSPs, I hear excitement in their voices when they talk about the future of text messaging. They see texting as a real revenue driver, especially from business customers who are just beginning to explore the value of mobile communications. These CSPs understand that communication isn't about which service you use the most (texting, voice, video) but how you use those services to stay connected to the world around you.
Is texting over the hill at 20? Doubtful. As a society, we are hooked on the direct and real-time communication enabled by texting. Our mobile devices unlock a world of possibilities and the deciding factor is typically convenience. In the first 20 years of SMS, we went from a simple intra-network "Merry Christmas" to accessibility on any network. It is possible that the next 20 years will bring us ubiquitous texting across many applications including personal communications, opt-in business uses and a burgeoning machine-to-machine environment.
The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long development cycles that produce software that is obsolete at launch. DevOps may be disruptive, but it is essential. The DevOps Summit at Cloud Expo – to be held June 3-5, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City – will expand the DevOps community, enable a wide...
May. 27, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,885
I’ve been thinking a bit about microservices (μServices) recently. My immediate reaction is to think: “Isn’t this just yet another new term for the same stuff, Web Services->SOA->APIs->Microservices?” Followed shortly by the thought, “well yes it is, but there are some important differences/distinguishing factors.” Microservices is an evolutionary paradigm born out of the need for simplicity (i.e., get away from the ESB) and alignment with agile (think DevOps) and scalable (think Containerizati...
May. 27, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,398
In her General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Anne Plese, Senior Consultant, Cloud Product Marketing, at Verizon Enterprise, focused on finding the right mix of renting vs. buying Oracle capacity to scale to meet business demands, and offer validated Oracle database TCO models for Oracle development and testing environments. Anne Plese is a marketing and technology enthusiast/realist with over 19+ years in high tech. At Verizon Enterprise, she focuses on driving growth for the Verizon Cloud platfo...
May. 27, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 5,329
I read an insightful article this morning from Bernard Golden on DZone discussing the DevOps conundrum facing many enterprises today – is it better to build your own DevOps tools or go commercial? For Golden, the question arose from his observations at a number of DevOps Days events he has attended, where typically the audience is composed of startup professionals: “I have to say, though, that a typical feature of most presentations is a recitation of the various open source products and compo...
May. 27, 2015 02:45 PM EDT Reads: 535
Many people recognize DevOps as an enormous benefit – faster application deployment, automated toolchains, support of more granular updates, better cooperation across groups. However, less appreciated is the journey enterprise IT groups need to make to achieve this outcome. The plain fact is that established IT processes reflect a very different set of goals: stability, infrequent change, hands-on administration, and alignment with ITIL. So how does an enterprise IT organization implement change...
May. 27, 2015 02:30 PM EDT Reads: 553
Cloud Expo, Inc. has announced today that Andi Mann returns to DevOps Summit 2015 as Conference Chair. The 4th International DevOps Summit will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. "DevOps is set to be one of the most profound disruptions to hit IT in decades," said Andi Mann. "It is a natural extension of cloud computing, and I have seen both firsthand and in independent research the fantastic results DevOps delivers. So I am excited to help the great team at ...
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,601
Software is eating the world. Companies that were not previously in the technology space now find themselves competing with Google and Amazon on speed of innovation. As the innovation cycle accelerates, companies must embrace rapid and constant change to both applications and their infrastructure, and find a way to deliver speed and agility of development without sacrificing reliability or efficiency of operations. In her Day 2 Keynote DevOps Summit, Victoria Livschitz, CEO of Qubell, discussed...
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 5,502
SYS-CON Events announced today that MetraTech, now part of Ericsson, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society- a world leader in communications infrastructure, software and services. Some 40% of the world’s mobile traffic runs through networks Ericsson has supplied, serving more than 2.5 billion subscribers.
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,252
The 5th International DevOps Summit, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo – being held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the...
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,021
How does one bridge the gap between traditional enterprise storage infrastructures and the private, hybrid, and public cloud? In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Dan Pollack, Chief Architect of Storage Operations at AOL Inc., examed the workload differences and required changes to reuse existing knowledge and components when building and using a cloud infrastructure. He also looked into the operational considerations, tool requirements, and behavioral changes required for private cloud storage s...
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,657
The speed of product development has increased massively in the past 10 years. At the same time our formal secure development and SDL methodologies have fallen behind. This forces product developers to choose between rapid release times and security. In his session at DevOps Summit, Michael Murray, Director of Cyber Security Consulting and Assessment at GE Healthcare, examined the problems and presented some solutions for moving security into the DevOps lifecycle to ensure that we get fast AND ...
May. 27, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,865
In the first four parts of this series I presented an introduction to microservices along with a handful of emerging microservices patterns, and a discussion of some of the downsides and challenges to using microservices. The most recent installment of this series looked at ten ways that PaaS facilitates microservices development and adoption. In this post I’ll cover some words of wisdom, advice intended for individuals, teams, and organizations considering a move to microservices. I've gleaned...
May. 27, 2015 01:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,546
Virtualization is everywhere. Enormous and highly profitable companies have been built on nothing but virtualization. And nowhere has virtualization made more of an impact than in Cloud Computing, the rampant and unprecedented adoption of which has been the direct result of the wide availability of virtualization software and techniques that enabled it. But does the cloud actually require virtualization?
May. 27, 2015 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,839
Working with Big Data is challenging, especially when decision makers depend on market insights and intelligence from your data but don't have quick access to it or find it unusable. In their session at 6th Big Data Expo, Ian Khan, Global Strategic Positioning & Brand Manager at Solgenia; Zel Bianco, President, CEO and Co-Founder of Interactive Edge of Solgenia; and Ermanno Bonifazi, CEO & Founder at Solgenia, discussed how a revolutionary cloud-based BI along with mobile analytics is already c...
May. 27, 2015 01:00 PM EDT Reads: 5,332
Hardware will never be more valuable than on the day it hits your loading dock. Each day new servers are not deployed to production the business is losing money. While Moore's Law is typically cited to explain the exponential density growth of chips, a critical consequence of this is rapid depreciation of servers. The hardware for clustered systems (e.g., Hadoop, OpenStack) tends to be significant capital expenses. In his session at Big Data Expo, Mason Katz, CTO and co-founder of StackIQ, disc...
May. 27, 2015 12:30 PM EDT Reads: 5,174
Enterprises are fast realizing the importance of integrating SaaS/Cloud applications, API and on-premises data and processes, to unleash hidden value. This webinar explores how managers can use a Microservice-centric approach to aggressively tackle the unexpected new integration challenges posed by proliferation of cloud, mobile, social and big data projects. Industry analyst and SOA expert Jason Bloomberg will strip away the hype from microservices, and clearly identify their advantages and d...
May. 27, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,428
The 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - announces that its Call for Papers is open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
May. 27, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,639
Containers Expo Blog covers the world of containers, as this lightweight alternative to virtual machines enables developers to work with identical dev environments and stacks. Containers Expo Blog offers top articles, news stories, and blog posts from the world's well-known experts and guarantees better exposure for its authors than any other publication. Bookmark Containers Expo Blog ▸ Here Follow new article posts on Twitter at @ContainersExpo
May. 27, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 977
SYS-CON Events announced today that EnterpriseDB (EDB), the leading worldwide provider of enterprise-class Postgres products and database compatibility solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. EDB is the largest provider of Postgres software and services that provides enterprise-class performance and scalability and the open source freedom to divert budget from more costly traditiona...
May. 27, 2015 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,530
T-Mobile has been transforming the wireless industry with its “Uncarrier” initiatives. Today as T-Mobile’s IT organization works to transform itself in a like manner, technical foundations built over the last couple of years are now key to their drive for more Agile delivery practices. In his session at DevOps Summit, Martin Krienke, Sr Development Manager at T-Mobile, will discuss where they started their Continuous Delivery journey, where they are today, and where they are going in an effort ...
May. 27, 2015 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,316