|By Udayan Banerjee||
|August 18, 2010 04:08 PM EDT||
If you are interested in emerging technology, you must be waiting for the yearly hype cycle to be published by Gartner. They have released a presentation which outlines the 2010 Gartner Hype Cycle on Emerging Technology. Is it an interesting document? It sure is! Does it have an element of surprise? Yes it does!
(If you are new to Gartner Hype Cycle, there is a short explanation towards the end of this post)
This report from Gartner is meant to guide enterprises on which emerging technologies to invest in. It is suppose to indicate where to put your money so that you can get the maximum benefit.
But, can you rely on this report? You could assume that since the report is from Gartner, it must be reliable. However, if you are pragmatic, you would want to check the accuracy of their past predictions and you would like to see some consistency in the predictions. That is when you will start getting your doubts. Let me give few examples:
- If a technology has appeared, for 3 years in a row (2007 to 2009) as Transformational you would not expect it to suddenly disappear from the list. However, that is precisely what happened to Web 2.0 and SOA. These two technologies have simply disappeared from the list. Neither of them had entered the Plateau of Productivity. There is also no indication that they have become Obsolete before Plateau. So, what happened to them? Is Web 2.0 Dead or Is It Thriving?
- Of the 7 technologies listed under Slope of Enlightenment, four do not appear in last year’s list. These technologies are – Predictive Analytics, Interactive TV, Internet Micropayment Systems and Biometric Authentication Methods. Where did they come from? Are these new terminologies? Not really. So, why where they not appearing in the past reports?
- Only 50% of the technologies mentioned in this year’s hype cycle had found a place in last year’s list. (Year wise consistency figures are given at the end of this post)
So, what is my recommendation? Before you use this report for decision making, I suggest that you perform your own analysis and compare it with past reports.
For those of you who are not familiar with Gartner’s Hype-Cycle
Here is a short explanation.
The assumption behind it is that every new technology creates an initial hype when everybody is talking about it. As a result an inflated expectation gets created around that technology. Since new technologies take time to mature and deliver value, it very rarely lives up to the initial hyped expectation. Therefore, after a peak of inflated expectation disillusionment follows till it reaches a trough. After this, some technologies dies a natural death and are forgotten. However, there are some which starts delivering value and people starts adopting them. When sufficient number of people adopts it, the technology is said to have reached the mainstream. The hype-cycle is represented as a graph and each technology of interest is plotted on the graph. Gartner also predicts the timeframe of each technology to reach mainstream.
In addition to the Hype Cycle, Gartner also publishes a Priority Matrix which puts all the listed technologies into a 4×4 grid. On the x-axis you have “years to main stream adoption” which is, from left to right, less than 2 years, 2 to 5 years, 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years. On the y-axis you have “benefit” which is, from top to bottom, transformational, high, medium and low. So, the top left corner will be the most important cell which will contain the list of “Transformational technologies to mature in less than 2 years“. Its adjacent columns will be next in importance, which are “Transformational technologies to mature in 2 to 5 years” and “High impact technologies to mature in less than 2 years“.
How consistent is the hype cycle compared to previous years?
This is how I measure consistency. I count all the technologies mentioned in the current year’s hype cycle. Then I count the number of those technologies which was also mentioned in last year’s hype cycle. The ratio expressed as a percentage is the degree of consistency. Here are the consistency figures from year 2004 onwards.
- 2010 – 50%
- 2009 – 62%
- 2008 – 44%
- 2007 – 52%
- 2006 – 47%
- 2005 – 43%
- 2004 – 46%
BTW: Here are some of my earlier posts on hype cycle:
The 17th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. 17th International Cloud Expo, to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Microservices, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding bu...
Apr. 18, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,044
What exactly is a cognitive application? In her session at 16th Cloud Expo, Ashley Hathaway, Product Manager at IBM Watson, will look at the services being offered by the IBM Watson Developer Cloud and what that means for developers and Big Data. She'll explore how IBM Watson and its partnerships will continue to grow and help define what it means to be a cognitive service, as well as take a look at the offerings on Bluemix. She will also check out how Watson and the Alchemy API team up to off...
Apr. 18, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,405
Thought experiment: let’s say your app gets a message from somewhere, perhaps from another app, but you don’t know from where. The message contains the number 47 but no other information. What should your app do with the message? The answer: nothing. There’s no way for your app to make any sense out of a single datum with no context, no additional information or metadata about the datum itself. Now, let’s scale up this thought experiment to a data lake. There are a few common definitions o...
Apr. 18, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 4,624
The 5th International DevOps Summit, co-located with 17th International Cloud Expo – being held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the...
Apr. 18, 2015 11:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,982
The concept and subsequent adoption of 'Containerization'' is growing at a rapid speed with the support of almost every other major player in the industry. This concept is much more efficient than the Virtualization which has been a major option for Infrastructure optimization in the past decade. The following factors distinguish a Container from a Virtual Machine. Containers contain Only the Application Specific libraries and binaries. They do not include a guest operating system. Rather ...
Apr. 18, 2015 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,230
How do you securely enable access to your applications in AWS without exposing any attack surfaces? The answer is usually very complicated because application environments morph over time in response to growing requirements from your employee base, your partners and your customers. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Haseeb Budhani, CEO and Co-founder of Soha, will share five common approaches that DevOps teams follow to secure access to applications deployed in AWS, Azure, etc., and the frict...
Apr. 18, 2015 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,361
Today, the demand for new applications is growing at an unprecedented rate throughout lines of business and across industries. Customer expectations for mobile and e-commerce capabilities are transforming software development speed and quality into a competitive differentiator for even the most unlikely businesses. For existing software development shops, the proliferation of platforms, increasing need for total global uptime, and accelerating pace of industry disruption by fast-paced startups h...
Apr. 18, 2015 10:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,128
As we recently previewed (read more about our London PoP in Jesse's post), Blue Box is opening a new Data Center in London, but hadn't announced the provider. Today we're excited to partner with TelecityGroup, whom we've selected as our data center partner in London. We chose their Powergate location, which is one of the U.K.'s most advanced, flexible and energy efficient carrier-neutral data centres. Why does that matter to you? Well, when customers choose Blue Box, they're trusting us with ...
Apr. 18, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,064
Cloud Expo New York is happening from June 9 - 11. This event brings together the worlds of Cloud Computing, DevOps, IoT, WebRTC, Big Data and SDDC. We hope to see you there-members of the Blue Box team will exhibit in booth 218 next to the DevOps area. Plus, our Chief Product Officer, Hernan Alvarez, will present his talk "The Cloud Has a Down-and-Dirty Lining" as part of the Operations track in the DevOps Summit portion of the event on June 9 at 11 am. Learn more about his session her...
Apr. 18, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,212
SYS-CON Events announced today that Column Technologies, a global technology solutions company, will exhibit at SYS-CON's DevOps Summit 2015 New York, which will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Established in 1998, Column Technologies is a leader in application performance and infrastructure management for commercial and federal markets. The company is headquartered in the United States, with a diverse and talented team of more than 350 employees around th...
Apr. 18, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,503
Financial services organizations were among the earliest enterprise adopters of cloud computing. The ability to leverage massive compute, storage and networking resources via RESTful APIs and automated tools like Chef and Puppet made it possible for their high-horsepower IT users to develop a whole new array of applications. Companies like Wells Fargo, Fidelity and BBVA are visible, vocal and engaged supporters of the OpenStack community, running production clouds for applications ranging from d...
Apr. 18, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,026
Operationalizing the network continues to be a driving force behind DevOps and SDN. The ability to solve real problems using programmability to automate and orchestrate infrastructure provisioning and configuration across the application release process remains the hope for many interested in one or the other - and often times both. A recent Avaya sponsored, Dynamic Markets survey (reg required) dove deep into the demesne of SDN and found that many of the problems companies have - and expect ...
Apr. 18, 2015 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,226
We just finished the first O’Reilly Software Architecture Conference and the overwhelming most popular topic was microservices. Why all the hype about an architectural style? Microservices are the first post-DevOps revolution architecture. The DevOps revolution highlighted how much inadvertent friction an outdated operations mindset can cause, starting the move towards automating away manual tasks.
Apr. 18, 2015 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,282
SYS-CON Media announced today that Blue Box as launched a popular blog feed on Cloud Computing Journal. Cloud Computing Journal aims to help open the eyes of Enterprise IT professionals to the economics and strategies that utility/cloud computing provides. Blue Box Cloud gives you unequaled agility, without the burden of designing, deploying and managing your own infrastructure. It’s the right choice when public cloud just won’t do. Blue Box Cloud is a managed Private Cloud as a Service (...
Apr. 18, 2015 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,244
Back in 2009 I posted about the “Great Cloud Shakeout” and the coming market consolidation into a few very large clouds. Nearly 5 1/2 years later and it’s about (long past?) time I took another look to see how I did. Back then I predicted that the market would be dominated by “mega CSPs” by the name of Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Note that this was during a period of Cambrian Explosion in the CSP market – it seems like everybody in the hosting business wanted to be a cloud provider....
Apr. 18, 2015 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,415
With the advent of micro-services, the application design paradigm has undergone a major shift. The days of developing monolithic applications are over. We are bringing in the principles (read SOA) hereto the preserve of applications or system integration space into the application development world. Since the micro-services are consumed within the application, the need of ESB is not there. There is no message transformation or mediations required. But service discovery and load balancing of ...
Apr. 18, 2015 07:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,088
SYS-CON Events announced today that Ciqada will exhibit at SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Ciqada™ makes it easy to connect your products to the Internet. By integrating key components - hardware, servers, dashboards, and mobile apps - into an easy-to-use, configurable system, your products can quickly and securely join the internet of things. With remote monitoring, control, and alert messaging capability, you will mee...
Apr. 18, 2015 07:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,559
Chef and Canonical announced a partnership to integrate and distribute Chef with Ubuntu. Canonical is integrating the Chef automation platform with Canonical's Machine-As-A-Service (MAAS), enabling users to automate the provisioning, configuration and deployment of bare metal compute resources in the data center. Canonical is packaging Chef 12 server in upcoming distributions of its Ubuntu open source operating system and will provide commercial support for Chef within its user base.
Apr. 18, 2015 01:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,707
SYS-CON Events announced today that MangoApps will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY., and the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MangoApps provides private all-in-one social intranets allowing workers to securely collaborate from anywhere in the world and from any device. Social, mobile, and eas...
Apr. 18, 2015 01:15 AM EDT Reads: 3,491
A few weeks ago, SmartBear hosted API Craft Boston with the folks from Akana, Ian Goldsmith and Laura Heritage, to talk about microservices. It was an extremely informative presentation of where microservices came from, what it solves, and considerations around how it might fit into an organizational API strategy. It’s one thing to read everyone else’s opinions on blogs, twitter, etc. It’s great to go to workshops and conferences, but this was so intelligently presented (and for a meetup too)...
Apr. 17, 2015 11:30 PM EDT Reads: 546