Click here to close now.

Welcome!

@MicroservicesE Blog Authors: Roger Strukhoff, Pat Romanski, Liz McMillan, AppDynamics Blog, Blue Box Blog

Related Topics: @MicroservicesE Blog, Agile Computing

@MicroservicesE Blog: Blog Feed Post

Gartner Hype Cycle 2010 – Emerging Technologies

What is in there and what is not

If you are interested in emerging technology, you must be waiting for the yearly hype cycle to be published by Gartner. They have released a presentation which outlines the 2010 Gartner Hype Cycle on Emerging Technology. Is it an interesting document? It sure is! Does it have an element of surprise? Yes it does!

(If you are new to Gartner Hype Cycle, there is a short explanation towards the end of this post)

This report from Gartner is meant to guide enterprises on which emerging technologies to invest in. It is suppose to indicate where to put your money so that you can get the maximum benefit.

But, can you rely on this report? You could assume that since the report is from Gartner, it must be reliable. However, if you are pragmatic, you would want to check the accuracy of their past predictions and you would like to see some consistency in the predictions. That is when you will start getting your doubts. Let me give few examples:

  1. If a technology has appeared, for 3 years in a row (2007 to 2009) as Transformational you would not expect it to suddenly disappear from the list. However, that is precisely what happened to Web 2.0 and SOA. These two technologies have simply disappeared from the list. Neither of them had entered the Plateau of Productivity. There is also no indication that they have become Obsolete before Plateau. So, what happened to them? Is Web 2.0 Dead or Is It Thriving?
  2. Of the 7 technologies listed under Slope of Enlightenment, four do not appear in last year’s list. These technologies are – Predictive Analytics, Interactive TV, Internet Micropayment Systems and Biometric Authentication Methods. Where did they come from? Are these new terminologies? Not really. So, why where they not appearing in the past reports?
  3. Only 50% of the technologies mentioned in this year’s hype cycle had found a place in last year’s list. (Year wise consistency figures are given at the end of this post)

So, what is my recommendation? Before you use this report for decision making, I suggest that you perform your own analysis and compare it with past reports.

For those of you who are not familiar with Gartner’s Hype-Cycle
Here is a short explanation.

The assumption behind it is that every new technology creates an initial hype when everybody is talking about it. As a result an inflated expectation gets created around that technology. Since new technologies take time to mature and deliver value, it very rarely lives up to the initial hyped expectation. Therefore, after a peak of inflated expectation disillusionment follows till it reaches a trough. After this, some technologies dies a natural death and are forgotten. However, there are some which starts delivering value and people starts adopting them. When sufficient number of people adopts it, the technology is said to have reached the mainstream. The hype-cycle is represented as a graph and each technology of interest is plotted on the graph. Gartner also predicts the timeframe of each technology to reach mainstream.

In addition to the Hype Cycle, Gartner also publishes a Priority Matrix which puts all the listed technologies into a 4×4 grid. On the x-axis you have “years to main stream adoption” which is, from left to right, less than 2 years, 2 to 5 years, 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years. On the y-axis you have “benefit” which is, from top to bottom, transformational, high, medium and low. So, the top left corner will be the most important cell which will contain the list of “Transformational technologies to mature in less than 2 years“. Its adjacent columns will be next in importance, which are “Transformational technologies to mature in 2 to 5 years” and “High impact technologies to mature in less than 2 years“.

How consistent is the hype cycle compared to previous years?
This is how I measure consistency. I count all the technologies mentioned in the current year’s hype cycle. Then I count the number of those technologies which was also mentioned in last year’s hype cycle. The ratio expressed as a percentage is the degree of consistency. Here are the consistency figures from year 2004 onwards.

  • 2010 – 50%
  • 2009 – 62%
  • 2008 – 44%
  • 2007 – 52%
  • 2006 – 47%
  • 2005 – 43%
  • 2004 – 46%

BTW: Here are some of my earlier posts on hype cycle:

More Stories By Udayan Banerjee

Udayan Banerjee is CTO at NIIT Technologies Ltd, an IT industry veteran with more than 30 years' experience. He blogs at http://setandbma.wordpress.com.
The blog focuses on emerging technologies like cloud computing, mobile computing, social media aka web 2.0 etc. It also contains stuff about agile methodology and trends in architecture. It is a world view seen through the lens of a software service provider based out of Bangalore and serving clients across the world. The focus is mostly on...

  • Keep the hype out and project a realistic picture
  • Uncover trends not very apparent
  • Draw conclusion from real life experience
  • Point out fallacy & discrepancy when I see them
  • Talk about trends which I find interesting
Google

@MicroservicesExpo Stories
There are several hundred good reasons to attend Cloud Expo | @ThingsExpo and the DevOps Summit next week (June 9-11) at the Javits Center in New York. Hundreds of great presentations and exhibits, the world's largest audience at an independent Cloud and IoT event, and the inspiration that one always gets when hearing peers discuss what they are doing in the cloud. I've winnowed the list down to half a dozen big-picture items. I'm sure you'll have your big reasons as well. 1. Geek Girls ...
It’s no news that microservices are one of the top trends, if not the top trend, in application architectures today. Take large monolithic applications which are brittle and difficult to change and break them into smaller manageable pieces to provide flexibility in deployment models, facilitating agile release and development to meet today’s rapidly shifting digital businesses. Unfortunately, with this change, application and infrastructure management is more complex due to size and technology c...
IBM has acquired Blue Box Group, Inc., a managed private cloud provider built on OpenStack. Customers benefit from the ability to more easily deploy workloads across hybrid cloud environments. Financial details were not disclosed. Enterprises are seeking ways to embrace all types of cloud to address a wide range of workloads. Today's announcement reinforces IBM's commitment to deliver flexible cloud computing models that make it easier for customers to move to data and applications across cloud...
"Blue Box has been around for 10-11 years, and last year we launched Blue Box Cloud. We like the term 'Private Cloud as a Service' because we think that embodies what we are launching as a product - it's a managed hosted private cloud," explained Giles Frith, Vice President of Customer Operations at Blue Box, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at DevOps Summit, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Founded in 2010, OpenStack is an open source Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform used to manage large quantities of compute storage and networking resources contained in a data center. It’s one of the fastest growing open source communities in the world, with over 400 companies and 18,000 contributors utilizing it.

Projections published in the OpenStack Pulse 2014 report from 451 Research indicate that OpenStack-based market revenue is expected to exceed $3 billion by 2018.

SYS-CON Events announced today that the "First Containers & Microservices Conference" will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. The “Second Containers & Microservices Conference” will take place November 3-5, 2015, at Santa Clara Convention Center, Santa Clara, CA. Containers and microservices have become topics of intense interest throughout the cloud developer and enterprise IT communities.
"NuoDB is a transactionally consistent SQL database that does scale out, that does all the things you want in a cloud. If you want more transactional throughput, if you want higher availability if you want to run in multiple data centers this is a technology that can scale and still provide a single logical consistent database," explained Seth Proctor, CTO of NuoDB, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
ProfitBricks has an early preview of its new Docker hosting platform. The ProfitBricks Docker platform enables its customers to build fully-portable applications within the ProfitBricks cloud. Unlike other Docker platforms, ProfitBricks’ Docker provides developers and system administrators with a platform with dedicated resources that autoscales the Docker hosts. Early access customers will be able to utilize up to 2,500 CPU core hours as part of ProfitBricks’ early access Docker preview.
“We are a managed services company. We have taken the key aspects of the cloud and the purposed data center and merged the two together and launched the Purposed Cloud about 18–24 months ago," explained Chetan Patwardhan, CEO of Stratogent, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 15th Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Matt and I first met in the Summer of 2014 at DevOpsDays Minneapolis. My first introduction came when he (and several other DoD alums) participated in an impressive round of DevOps Karaoke. Matt gave an IGNITE talk on day two of the event titled “How to Hire Your First DevOp” as well. I learned during that event that he co-hosted a DevOps specific podcast that was gaining in popularity. It made perfect sense. Not long after Minneapolis, I began trading emails with the organizers of DevOpsDays C...
Andi Mann has been serving as Conference Chair of the DevOps Summit since its inception. He is one of the world's recognized leaders in DevOps, and continues to be one of its most articulate advocates. Here are some recent thoughts of his in an interview we conducted in the run-up to the DevOps Summit to be held June 9-11 at the Javits Center in New York City. When did you first start thinking about DevOps and its potential impact on enterprise IT? Andi: I first started thinking about DevOps b...
Growth hacking is common for startups to make unheard-of progress in building their business. Career Hacks can help Geek Girls and those who support them (yes, that's you too, Dad!) to excel in this typically male-dominated world. Get ready to learn the facts: Is there a bias against women in the tech / developer communities? Why are women 50% of the workforce, but hold only 24% of the STEM or IT positions? Some beginnings of what to do about it!
SYS-CON Events announced today that O'Reilly Media has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. O'Reilly Media spreads the knowledge of innovators through its books, online services, magazines, and conferences. Since 1978, O'Reilly Media has been a chronicler and catalyst of cutting-edge development, homing in on the technology trends that really matter and spurring their adoption...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SUSE, a pioneer in open source software, will exhibit at SYS-CON's DevOps Summit 2015 New York, which will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. SUSE provides reliable, interoperable Linux, cloud infrastructure and storage solutions that give enterprises greater control and flexibility. More than 20 years of engineering excellence, exceptional service and an unrivaled partner ecosystem power the products and support that help ...
The 17th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. 17th International Cloud Expo, to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Microservices, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding bu...
The 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - announces that its Call for Papers is open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
"Cloud consumption is something we envision at Solgenia. That is trying to let the cloud spread to the user as a consumption, as utility computing. We want to allow the people to just pay for what they use, not a subscription model," explained Ermanno Bonifazi, CEO & Founder of Solgenia, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at Cloud Expo, held Nov 4–6, 2014, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Many people recognize DevOps as an enormous benefit – faster application deployment, automated toolchains, support of more granular updates, better cooperation across groups. However, less appreciated is the journey enterprise IT groups need to make to achieve this outcome. The plain fact is that established IT processes reflect a very different set of goals: stability, infrequent change, hands-on administration, and alignment with ITIL. So how does an enterprise IT organization implement change...
17th Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterprises a...
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing IoT strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @ThingsExpo in Silicon Valley. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is as "IoT-Ready" as it can be! Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 17th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading in...